Biden administration has all but paused push for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal
Gaza Conflict Negotiations Stall as Israel Launches Attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon #
The Biden administration has effectively paused efforts to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza, with recent Israeli assaults on Hezbollah in Lebanon further complicating the prospects for a near-term deal. Senior US officials have largely stopped pushing for ceasefire negotiations, having determined there is currently no political will on either side to end the conflict.
While the administration refuses to abandon the effort entirely, some officials involved in the deliberations feel they cannot want peace more than the parties involved. The stalled talks are threatening to sink the president’s other priorities in the Middle East as he nears the end of his term.
During his final United Nations address, Biden made only a brief call for a ceasefire. US officials are still assessing the situation in Lebanon and trying to understand Israel’s end-goal regarding its northern neighbor. They hope Israel’s actions might force Hezbollah to negotiate while avoiding a regional war.
American officials see the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon as interconnected, despite Israel’s insistence that they are separate issues. The administration is focused on preventing the conflict from expanding and engulfing the entire region.
Some within the administration believe a change in approach could help end the conflict, including proposing a comprehensive agreement rather than the current three-phase deal. However, there are no indications of an active “Plan B” at present.
High-level US officials who have previously made frequent trips to the Middle East to facilitate negotiations currently have no known plans to visit Israel. It has been over a month since Biden last spoke with the Israeli Prime Minister.
US officials acknowledge the increasing likelihood that a ceasefire may not materialize before Biden’s term ends in January. This also means that a landmark Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization deal is unlikely to be agreed upon before he leaves office.
The administration remains open to unexpected developments that could shift the situation, with the potential death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar seen as a possible game-changer. However, there has been no recent communication from Sinwar to mediators seeking a hostage deal.
As the window for a ceasefire and hostage deal narrows, the situation remains volatile and unpredictable, with multiple factors influencing the prospects for peace in the region.